Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 27 2023 17:29:30 ACUS02 KWNS 271729 SWODY2 SPC AC 271727 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western portions of the Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Hail and strong gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ....High Plains and areas just east... While the overall upper flow field, and associated surface pattern, will remain similar to previous days, weakening of the western U.S. trough will result in a corresponding weakening of the flow aloft. This suggests reduced severe potential overall. Still, with a modestly moist, diurnally destabilizing boundary layer across the High Plains in the vicinity of a persistent lee trough, widely scattered storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. The most favorable environmental characteristic with respect to severe-weather potential appears to be the persistence of steep lapse rates/eastward EML advection. As such, despite modest shear, large hail will be possible with stronger storms. Meanwhile, with the weaker synoptic pattern, a weaker nocturnal low-level jet is expected, suggesting less likelihood for well-organized convection to shift eastward toward lower elevations during the evening. The best chance for a loosely organized MCS to evolve appears at this time to be over southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico, which would then shift eastward/east-southeastward into western Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Severe threat would likely remain limited however -- again due to somewhat modest deep-layer winds. ....South Texas... A weak disturbance aloft is progged to cross northern Mexico and adjacent portions of southern Texas Sunday. With associated, afternoon convective development expected across northern Mexico, it appears possible that some upscale growth of these storms into one or more clusters could occur, that could cross the lower Rio Grande Valley into Texas. While instability would likely remain somewhat limited with eastward extent, potential for locally strong wind gust and/or hail with this convection -- through the evening and into the overnight hours -- may exist. As such, MRGL risk is being extended across South Texas with this update. ...Goss.. 05/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .