Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 27 2023 16:13:25

ACUS01 KWNS 271613
SWODY1
SPC AC 271611

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across
much of the High Plains this afternoon and evening.  Large hail and
severe gusts are the primary hazards.

....Eastern NM/West TX...
An overnight cluster of thunderstorms has resulted in remnant
outflow boundary extending from near Plainview TX westward to Santa
Rosa NM, with continued slow southward movement.  This boundary is
likely to maintain some character through the afternoon and play a
role in convective activity.  The 14Z HRRR solution appears to have
a reasonable handle on this scenario, and develops a cluster of
supercells by mid-afternoon near the boundary over eastern NM.
These storms will track eastward in a corridor of slightly
enhanced/backed low-level winds.  Large/very large hail and damaging
winds are the main threats.  However, a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out.

....Northern High Plains...
Similar to yesterday, full sunshine and steep mid-level lapse rates
will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher
terrain of CO/WY/MT.  These storms will spread across the adjacent
high plains through the early evening.  Moderate CAPE values will
promote strong updrafts capable of isolated large hail and damaging
winds.  However, the main limiting factor will be rather weak bulk
shear.  Organized multicell storms will likely be the dominant mode,
with some clustering expected through the evening.

...Hart/Weinman.. 05/27/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.