Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 27 2023 07:30:21 AWUS01 KWNH 270730 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-271320- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0353 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 330 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023 Areas affected...eastern NM into western TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 270720Z - 271320Z SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be likely across portions of eastern NM into western TX. Slow moving storms will be capable of rainfall rates of at least 1-2 in/hr. Additional rainfall totals through 13Z of 3-6 inches are expected on a localized basis. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over the southern High Plains at 07Z showed two main areas of concern in terms of a flash flood threat. First was a cluster of thunderstorms stretching from northwest of Clovis, NM to Hereford, TX. Second was a separate and smaller cluster that has been rapidly developing over the past hour in eastern San Miguel County (northeastern NM). Both areas were located north/east of a remnant outflow boundary from Friday but with reinforcement of cooler air given ongoing storms. Winds between 850-700 mb were southerly at 20-30 kt, supporting overrunning while flow aloft was quite diffluent between an upper trough to the west and ridge axis extending northward close to the NM/TX border. MLCAPE was estimated to be 1000-2000 J/kg with 0-1 km AGL southeasterly winds maintaining a supply of rich low level moisture into the region. as seen on Layered PW Imagery below 700 mb. Kinematic profiles suggest that individual cells will attempt to translate eastward but the resupplying of low level moisture from the south coupled with the available instability and diffluece aloft will support redevelopment upstream and subsequent training. Recent infrared satellite trends through 07Z are finally showing signs of a cessation to upstream development with some eastward translation to colder cloud tops for the convective cluster along/east of the NM/TX border. A drop-off in instability east of Rt. 62/207 in the central TX Panhandle suggests that the eastern extent of flash flooding will be limited but it is unclear exactly how long this cluster will maintain as hires model support has been poor. Additional slow movement of heavy rain is expected with at least 1-2 in/hr rates for another 1-2 hours, but beyond 10Z or so, there is uncertainty with the future of the storm complex. Farther northwest, there is decent agreement in recent HRRR runs to suggest that the expanding thunderstorm cluster over eastern San Miguel County will continue for at least another 3-6 hours given its favorable location beneath the best upper dlffluence and at the leading edge of stronger low level flow as seen in RAP analysis data. Back-building and training of heavy rain is likely to allow for rainfall rates between 1-2 in/hr but locally in excess of 2 in/hr with additional totals of 3-6 inches through 13Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5tJiYhUfS3DjGlQW5iOJ7d0YXdhljUSRbl7j5Ewst3yPdzOhCxu7diGixvvhYGSpa-O9= vFrx882LtErwsBTCX0i5sl0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36630311 36560255 36310254 35770298 35420281=20 35090250 34610131 33550117 32990184 33080305=20 33860401 34960510 35660519 36090501 36300460=20 36540385=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .