Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 27 2023 06:49:55

ACUS03 KWNS 270649
SWODY3
SPC AC 270648

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DAKOTAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail
and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the Dakotas on
Monday.

....Northern Plains vicinity...

A weak mid/upper shortwave trough will develop east across the
northern Plains on Monday. Deep-layer flow will remain modest across
the Plains, similar to the previous several days. A surface trough
associated with a low over northern Ontario will shift east across
the Dakotas. The surface trough will weaken with southward extent,
with a rather nondescript surface patter over the southern Plains.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s to low 60s F dewpoints.
With a lack of strong mid/upper level forcing and limited surface
feature to focus convection, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop across much of the Plains. Most of this activity will likely
remain disorganized, though some steep lapse rates and weak vertical
shear could support sporadic strong storms. Some increased severe
potential could develop across parts of the Dakotas beneath the
influence of the weak upper shortwave trough, and along the better
defined surface trough. Hail and strong gusts would be the main
hazards associated with this activity.

...Leitman.. 05/27/2023

$$

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