Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 27 2023 02:28:46

AWUS01 KWNH 270228
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-270600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0351
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1026 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023

Areas affected...Northeast CO...Southwest NE...Far Northwest KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270225Z - 270600Z

SUMMARY...A line heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing east
through northeast CO may potentially get into portions of
southwest NE and far northwest KS where antecedent conditions are
locally very sensitive to additional rainfall.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a small-scale MCS
advancing east through portions of northeast CO with locally heavy
rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour. This activity which has
its origins from upstream over central CO much earlier in the
afternoon continues to advance east into a pool of moderately
unstable air.

MLCAPE values up across far eastern CO and western KS ahead of the
current line of convection remain on the order of 500 to 1000
J/kg, but these these values are gradually coming down as
nocturnal boundary layer cooling ensues. Nevertheless, the
low-level flow remains rather moist and convergent out of the
south-southeast, with PWs running near 2 standard deviations above
normal.

The convection should gradually weaken by later this evening, but
unfortunately may make it far enough east to impact some areas of
southwest NE and far northwest KS that saw extremely heavy
rainfall totals last night and this morning. This includes
Hitchcock County, NE which saw a Flash Flood Emergency level event
early this morning.

The line will be capable of producing locally up to an additional
2 inches of rain before it begins to weaken over the next few
hours. Assuming these rains make it downstream into areas of far
northwest KS and especially southwest NE, additional flash
flooding will be possible given the extreme sensitivities still on
the ground at least locally.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!97yCyYK0jYsJ6lhwrGgsax_IQsbJHEvhM11KCO1_nxrKXr-riYGX9aJzmJyyUFDGtEMu=
R37sFJR-lD3uyN4j2dPSmfc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41040166 41020101 40800050 40280038 39920070=20
            39740128 39810225 40130266 40570246 40880219=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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