Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 27 2023 01:22:15 AWUS01 KWNH 270122 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-270720- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0350 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 921 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 270120Z - 270720Z SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of well-organized showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening. Localized training and repeating cell-activity coupled with very heavy rainfall rates are likely to result in areas of more flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows several clusters of deep convection with very cold cloud-tops impacting areas of southeast CO and northeast NM, with additional activity noted across areas of southwest to west TX. The convection which is largely severe in mode is characterized by groupings of supercell activity which have been maintaining their organization over the last couple of hours and more recently have even expanded a bit more in coverage. The airmass out across the southern High Plains remains moist and very unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. The greatest instability is over eastern NM, and this area also is where the low-level moisture convergence is maximized as southeast flow continues in the boundary layer. The PWs are locally as high as 1.0 to 1.2 inches and these values are as much as 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal. Going through the evening time frame, there will likely be two different areas of convective concentration... 1. Northeast NM/Southeast CO (generally east of the Sangre De Cristo Range) - Ongoing and locally training axis of convection with additional cell redevelopment and training concerns expected over the next couple of hours with proximity of a very slow-moving outflow boundary intercepting southeast low-level moisture/instability transport. Locally an additional 2 to 3 inches of rain possible here. 2. East-Central NM into Western TX - The HRRR guidance and some 12Z/18Z HREF members support an uptick in convective organization later this evening with the arrival of additional shortwave energy from the west. Its interaction with the current reservoir of moderate to locally strong instability and favorable moisture flux heading into the overnight time frame will yield a potential MCS with locally backbuilding and training thunderstorms producing high rainfall rates (up to 2 inches/hour) and locally enhanced storm totals of 3 to 5 inches. The southern High Plains in general have been seeing repeating rounds of convection over the last couple of days, and so the antecedent conditions are locally sensitive. The additional areas of organized convection going through the evening hours alone are likely to result in additional areas of flash flooding. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YyH6QN8uBJTax5h2VIoHLjoM0DkhNJBAIIfCbwgP2S7pnKXe_-hcLlBJEGpOyJiVSAH= X4EmqBM9gtiaieFiFRtCo5M$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...EPZ...LUB...MAF...PUB...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37560294 37280212 36250183 34890160 33450095=20 32000086 30380165 29780330 30380487 31360555=20 32750516 34020535 34900573 36330516 37020418=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .