Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 27 2023 00:54:20 ACUS01 KWNS 270054 SWODY1 SPC AC 270052 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE PERMIAN BASIN... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over parts of the southern High Plains. Severe thunderstorms are also possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ....Southern High Plains... Southwest to westerly mid-level flow extends through the base of a larger-scale trough across the southern High Plains. A persistent ridge over northern MX and TX will remain through tonight, limiting eastward extent of the thunderstorm activity. The 00 UTC Midland, TX raob showed steep lapse rates and moderate buoyancy (1800 J/kg MLCAPE) with an elongated hodograph. Model guidance shows strengthening 850-700mb warm-air advection this evening across the Permian Basin and South Plains. Additional storm development is possible through late evening coincident with the nocturnal LLJ intensification. Large to very large hail will be possible with any quasi-discrete storms. The possibility for a cluster of storms to evolve near a modified outflow boundary warrants maintaining 30-percent wind probabilities this forecast update. For short-term convective details through mid evening, refer to MCDs #877, 879. ....Central and northern High Plains... Moderate south-southwesterly mid-level flow emanating from a western U.S. trough will be maintained across the central and northern High Plains tonight. An ongoing broken squall line from the central High Plains into southeast MT will continue to move east/northeast this evening. Flow fields weaken with eastward extent (reference the 00 UTC Rapid City, SD raob) but steep lapse rates will favor the potential for severe gusts and perhaps large hail for the next several hours before this threat gradually wanes tonight. For short-term convective details through mid evening, refer to MCD #878. ...Smith.. 05/27/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .