Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 26 2023 20:13:11 AWUS01 KWNH 262013 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-270210- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0347 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 411 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the Central/Southern Rockies and High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 262010Z - 270210Z SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies will advance gradually east through the afternoon and early evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall will pose an isolated threat for flash flooding. DISCUSSION...The midday GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows convective initiation well underway across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies. The activity is at least initially being driven by strong solar insolation and related boundary layer destabilization coupled with terrain-induced circulations and related orographic ascent. Additionally, the flow aloft is rather divergent downstream of a slow-moving upper trough over the Great Basin. Over the next several hours, this activity should grow upscale a bit more and attain greater organization while also advancing east of the higher terrain and out into the open High Plains of central/eastern CO and down through eastern NM. MLCAPE values are locally already on the order of 1500+ J/kg with some room to grow given the aforementioned solar insolation. The shear aloft is rather modest over CO, but increases rather markedly down over eastern NM with notably stronger wind profiles. A combination of the strong thermodynamics and kinematics will favor rather strong convection with at least elevated rainfall rate potential. The rainfall potential is being aided by the persistence of moist low-level south to southeast flow which is also increasing the PW anomalies across the High Plains. The latest RAP guidance supports these values reaching 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal by 00Z. Rainfall rates may reach as high as 1.5+ inches/hour with the stronger cells, and some spotty storm totals of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible where potentially a few cell-mergers occur over the next several hours along with brief instances of repeating cell-activity. Locally over the higher terrain, there are some burn scar sensitivities that need to be closely watched for enhanced runoff potential. The more urbanized locations farther off to the east will also be susceptible to a threat of flash flooding should these stronger pockets of convection impact these areas. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BGPA30HJ7zra-KyOaHNBjLcgtU5zeypHYqQiLC8JFgECjHmb9C2HpNVL00Jnbyu6i5t= 2BVVkpGrtMdAZq2DqJapxKM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...GLD...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40940395 40120313 37970293 35480341 34300446=20 34100550 34650673 35290726 36300724 37470630=20 39780574 40740524=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .