Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0873
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 26 2023 17:56:46

ACUS11 KWNS 261756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261756=20
COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-262000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0873
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Areas affected...parts of eastern Wyoming and much of eastern
Colorado...and into far western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 261756Z - 262000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of
southeastern Wyoming and the Colorado Front Range will
increase/expand with time this afternoon.  WW issuance will likely
be required by 20Z.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar loops show rather
widespread convective development underway across the higher terrain
of central Colorado and northward into the Laramie Range of
southeastern Wyoming.  Storm coverage and intensity are forecast to
increase with time, shifting eastward off the terrain into a
modestly moist, favorably destabilizing airmass where mixed-layer
CAPE now near 1000 J/kg is indicated.  Additional heating, combined
with very steep mid-level lapse rates, will permit additional
destabilization -- ultimately supporting robust updrafts.

Though flow aloft -- particularly at mid levels -- remains modest
per area VWPs, marked veering with height, from southeasterly to
southwesterly in the lowest 3km AGL, is noted.  This, combined with
the favorable thermodynamics, will result in organized updrafts,
including rotation within more sustained storms.  Along with
potential for large hail, locally damaging winds will also be
possible as the deepening mixed layer promotes sub-cloud
evaporation.  Wind risk may increase somewhat late this afternoon
and into this evening, as it appears that upscale growth into at
least semi-organized linear storm mode will occur, as storms spread
off the higher terrain.

...Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4w_BaY8Lm77SPPfojiWOzkKsbtAONEYO3RPE_BI-65__EMUXh7sOn9N1XPLyZq4qsrP6uzdxI=
Xj0bFdq7Z1cKaOa3KA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   39740555 41080566 41910652 42870628 43490547 43630409
            40770325 38620242 37590302 37480510 38350575 39250544
            39740555=20


=3D =3D =3D
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