Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 26 2023 11:23:04 AWUS01 KWNH 261122 FFGMPD KSZ000-NEZ000-261421- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0343 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 722 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 Areas affected...portions of the western Nebraska/Kansas border Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 261121Z - 261421Z Summary...Training convection with heavy rainfall is expected for another few hours across southwest NE and adjacent northwest KS.=20 Hourly rain totals to 2" with additional local 4" amounts are expected over saturating soils. Discussion...An MCV from ongoing convection is southwest NE has become apparent in recent radar imagery, with occasional backbuilding attempts closer to the instability pool still evident to its southwest. The organized convective activity is sandwiched between an upper low in the West and an upper level trough to its east in the Mid-Mississippi Valley within an area of 700 hPa confluence where boundary layer moisture flux is maximized. MU CAPE upstream remains 500+ J/kg. Effective bulk shear of ~25 kts is organizing the short training rain band. The mesoscale guidance isn't behaving ideally in this area, but believe their general idea/concept on the activity's evolution has some merit. The MCV is expected to keep importing enough instability into the area for a little while longer to keep heavy rain expectations in the cards, with cell mergers from new activity to the east-southeast possible near the NE/KS border.=20 Some track shift to the east-southeast is possible in the near term per recent radar trends. Once instability erodes sufficiently, a cold pool should move out of the convective area (which may be starting to occur) and force greater forward propagation increasingly not aligned with the orientation of the rain band. Until that occurs, hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts to 4" would be possible which would exceed the modest flash flood guidance in the area. Roth ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9PEE2YeQyDU32xHAZ8PMaMX1SDr_s0oKch14fXrq_wIgDQ25-WyLf-2AKxi5mmKCv0uN= ConjEaJuE5byx2SfqrdJ1t0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 40540106 40430031 40269997 39919994 39630038=20 39940146 40340162=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .