Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 26 2023 07:23:59 AWUS01 KWNH 260723 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-261300- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0342 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 323 AM EDT Fri May 26 2023 Areas affected...eastern NM into the TX Panhandle Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 260722Z - 261300Z SUMMARY...At least a localized flash flood threat is likely to continue over portions of eastern NM, possibly extending into the TX Panhandle over the next few hours. Rainfall rates of at least 1-2 in/hr are expected with additional totals of 2-4 inches through 13Z, but locally higher totals cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...An MCS was located over the northern TX Panhandle into eastern NM at 0645Z with an MCV located in Hansford County. The leading edge of the associated outflow boundary has been moving fairly steadily to the east/southeast across the TX Panhandle but where the outflow boundary aligned with the mean steering flow in eastern NM, slower movement was observed along with significant training of heavy rain on either side of I-40, extending back into eastern San Miguel County. MRMS estimates of rainfall over Quay County in eastern NM ranged from 5-10 inches over the past 6 hours ending at 07Z. While those values could be too high given the presence of large hail and a lack of data from the 88D at KFDX and surface stations makes ground truth of rainfall difficult, a Wunderground.com local weather station in eastern Quay County, just north of I-40, reported 1 inch of rain in 30 minutes ending 0645Z, translating into peak rainfall rates of at least 2 in/hr across the region given higher hourly rainfall estimates to the south of the Wunderground station. 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated just south of the outflow boundary in eastern NM via the SPC mesoanalysis. 700 mb flow from the RAP was 20-30 kt, oriented perpendicular to the western portion of the outflow boundary in NM, with mean cell translation toward the southeast but upstream development was promoting training. Short term forecasts from the RAP suggest 700 mb winds weakening into the 15-20 kt range through 13Z but lingering overrunning flow and available instability should continue training of cells just north out the outflow boundary over some of the same regions currently experiencing flash flooding for another 1-3 hours but some questions remain with organization beyond 10Z. With rainfall rates of at least 1-2 in/hr and additional totals of at least 2-4 inches through 13Z, significant concerns of flash flooding will exist near I-40 and surrounding nearby locations. Farther east into the TX Panhandle, cells are expected to be more progressive compared to eastern NM but recent heavy rain has lowered FFG across the region to less than 2 inches in 3 hours. Therefore, a lesser but still notable flash flood risk will exist for the TX Panhandle as well. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77i3QNBTprywIfYKbTn0l6xYbF_b5XtXuE2ZibqOSfBfXxPF3N_gW33vcW_2xlOkcalU= W19SdVtRTPuiBF_k1zSG4JM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36270415 35560298 35390189 35040121 34480099=20 34030113 33510193 33700322 34510440 35520514=20 36160499=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .