Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0871
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 26 2023 07:07:13

ACUS11 KWNS 260707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260706=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-260900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

Valid 260706Z - 260900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible over
the next few hours from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. A small
severe thunderstorm watch may be needed, depending upon convective
trends over the next hour.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Lubbock shows an MCS from
northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Severe storms are
ongoing along the southwestern edge of the MCS, where the RAP has
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Additional storms have
recently initiated further south, in the area southwest of Clovis.
These storms are likely developing in response to warm advection
associated with the strengthening low-level jet. In addition to the
instability, moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the
southern Plains. The Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 45 to 50 kt of 0-6 km
shear, which will support continued severe storm development. Wind
damage and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. The
duration of the severe threat remains uncertain. Convective trends
will be watched over the next hour to determine whether an
additional watch will be needed.

...Broyles.. 05/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5WzWu0MdBj5O6jOww1vx6uRNQUfqMUx4DSbYtglbNbSg0FxgR3Fw6hvR1YR8ouQdsAVShS7vI=
MoDDPOEUmwNkDExV2w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34320185 33780224 33950361 34350430 34910411 35040326
            34740213 34320185=20


=3D =3D =3D
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