Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 26 2023 05:47:16 ACUS01 KWNS 260547 SWODY1 SPC AC 260545 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS FROM MONTANA TO TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are most likely over parts of the southern High Plains from late afternoon through evening from eastern New Mexico into western Texas. Damaging hail and wind are expected. Severe hail and wind may also occur over parts of the central to northern High Plains, primarily from southeast Montana into northeast Colorado. ....Synopsis... The upper ridge over the southern Plains will flatten a bit today, with 500 mb winds increasing to over 40 kt across southern NM into TX. Meanwhile, an upper trough will slowly move east across the Great Basin, with a blocking high over the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure will remain over a large portion of the eastern CONUS, with northeast winds over the Gulf of Mexico limiting moisture into the Plains. Still, sufficient moisture will push west over the length of the High Plains, where easterly winds will also maintain upglide. The result will be several areas of severe potential from MT to western TX, with the greatest threat area from eastern NM into southwest TX. ....Southern High Plains... In the wake of early day rain and storms over west TX, air mass recovery and evapotranspiration will occur, with gradual moistening through the day. Mid to upper 50s F dewpoints will be common into eastern NM, with values perhaps around 60 F along the TX border. The strong westward surge of low-level moisture, coincident with heating, should lead to scattered storms over east-central NM during afternoon, extending southward toward the Davis Mtns as well. A few storms are expected to produce very large, damaging hail, with damaging wind threat as well. There is some uncertainly regarding the centroid of greatest probability, but deep-layer shear will be stronger than on previous days, near 55kt, with good low-level storm relative inflow as well. As such, at least a small area of concentrated significant severe appears probable. ....Northern High Plains... Scattered to numerous storms are expected during the late afternoon from northern CO across WY and into MY, beneath cool temperatures aloft and with ample surface heating. A surface trough will linger from central WY into the western Dakotas, and will provide a focus for afternoon development. Shear will not be very strong, but sufficient wind fields aloft will aid storm motions off the higher terrain and into the Plains. Steep lapse rates will favor hail initially, with substantial outflow expected as well. In addition, southeasterly low-level winds increasing late in the day may support rotation either with the leading outflows or with individual cells, with a brief tornado possible where SRH is greatest. ...Jewell.. 05/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .