Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0870 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 26 2023 04:21:25 ACUS11 KWNS 260421 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260420=20 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-260615- Mesoscale Discussion 0870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern NM...central/western parts of the TX and OK Panhandles. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238... Valid 260420Z - 260615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238 continues. SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm potential should persist for at least a few more hours well east of I-25 in northeastern New Mexico, as well as across western/central parts of the TX and OK Panhandles. Large to isolated very large hail will remain possible from supercells, while any well-organized convection over the area will offer damaging to severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Convection has increased markedly in coverage over the lifespan of the watch so far, predominantly in the form of three processes: 1. An arching squall line that has moved out of southeastern CO and the Raton Mesa area, and as of 04Z, extended from a nonsevere segment over southwestern KS, across Texas County OK, the northwestern TX Panhandle, to northeastern Harding County NM. 2. A persistent, slow-moving supercell that has produced significant-severe hail reports (greater than 2 inches diameter) and gusts (65 kt at TCC off its rear flank at 03Z). 3. A mix of supercells and multicells that has grown to occupy a good deal of the space between the squall line and longstanding supercell across northeastern NM. The MCS (1) fronts a well-organized cold pool with substantial theta-e and pressure perturbations, that only should expand as its trailing portion merges with the multicells and supercells over NM (2,3) and backbuilds somewhat. The northern part of the line will encounter relatively weak low-level theta-e as it proceeds into the eastern Panhandles and then may lose organization. However, with a 30-35-kt southeasterly LLJ -- sampled well by AMA/LBB VWP data -- expected to persist for several more hours over the central/southern TX Panhandle region, some associated severe potential may persist through the AMA vicinity. Modified RAOBs and forecast soundings suggest 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, 35-40-kt effective-shear magnitude, and only slowly increasing MLCINH through around 07Z, supporting continued severe potential with the southern part of the MCS and any foregoing convection. Also, the LLJ will overtop the combined outflow boundary/cold pool overnight. Additional severe thunderstorms may form upshear from the TCC-area activity and move southeastward toward the western/southwestern Panhandle, also offering severe hail and occasional strong/damaging gusts. ...Edwards.. 05/26/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Goh91u2HlSyoRohzM1xUIYRFMMjvOcZEi1B7yG6k5WaiP546giflpJah-Fvfse16foh4vGvj= 3KOCFTVO86dTlg0Ek8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34290304 34290374 34600372 34600406 35200412 35200451 35620448 35980432 36000337 36410232 36680195 37000184 36990095 36880095 36520093 36480105 34750109 34290304 34290304=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .