Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 26 2023 02:06:58

AWUS01 KWNH 260206
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-260605-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0339
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

Areas affected...Central/Northeast CO...Southeast WY...Southwest
NE...Northwest KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260205Z - 260605Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms may
persist through the remainder of the evening and foster at least
an isolated threat of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a few areas of
thunderstorms impacting areas of central to northeast CO,
southeast WY and across northwest KS and southwest NE. The
activity is taking advantage of a boundary layer that is
relatively moist and still moderately unstable with MLCAPE values
of as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg.

Some small-scale outflow boundaries are noted with the activity as
well, and especially over northeast CO which is tending to favor
locally focused areas of convective redevelopment where these
boundary collisions occur. There is also a persistence of rather
diffluent flow aloft over the region.

The convection is not overly organized, but the activity is rather
slow-moving in nature and may tend to persist through the evening
given the lingering thermodynamic environment and also rather
close proximity of an MCV over southwest NE which may in itself be
a forcing mechanism later in the night for more concentrated areas
of convection.

Expect the ongoing cells over the next few hours to still be
capable of producing 1 to 1.5 inch/hour rainfall rates, with some
additional spotty storm totals of 2 to 3 inches possible. This
will especially be the case where any localized cell-mergers
occur. An isolated threat of flash flooding will exist as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!78TiTptuE6fffEPJwTZNWMxEV0qxeOjgJheGZI4iVFqnLM2s629LSjfVjdNKO_2J-oA4=
Iz34EErrNzJ7fQv6SaHG7Jg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GID...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42250464 42020339 41270222 40610010 39719986=20
            38830200 38410323 38310419 38590465 39730433=20
            40550463 41140551 41730551=20

=3D =3D =3D
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