Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0869
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri May 26 2023 02:03:11

ACUS11 KWNS 260203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260202=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-260330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Areas affected...Northeast NM into the western TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

Valid 260202Z - 260330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and localized severe gusts
continues. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...At 02 UTC, a long-lived thunderstorm cluster is moving
southeastward across far northeast NM and the western OK Panhandle,
with supercells ongoing near/north of Tucumcari, and another
supercell moving into western Harding County, NM. Favorably steep
midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 00Z ABQ and AMA soundings) and
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support vigorous
convection into late evening. Veering wind profiles with 35-45 kt of
effective shear will continue to support organized storms.=20

Evolution of convection into late evening remains somewhat
uncertain. In the short term, the ongoing slow-moving supercells
will likely pose the primary severe hazard. Recent VWPs from KAMA
indicate that the forecast increase in low-level southeasterly flow
is underway, with a modest strengthening of low-level shear
potentially supporting a brief tornado threat with any persistent
supercell. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will
remain possible. With time, cell mergers into the ongoing storm
cluster approaching the northwest TX Panhandle may support somewhat
organized upscale growth, with an attendant increase in severe-gust
potential later tonight.=20

Some severe threat may spread southeastward out of WW 238 later
tonight, and downstream watch issuance is possible depending on
short-term observational trends.

...Dean/Edwards.. 05/26/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4-us68YgAxQAoykZ_bpcqjLXSSKDtWi-oDnPpZLcfmghsBXFM35RiAMkeh2152VUQGCHvZihq=
dZ0_B-eEVJlPPhb9MY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35970485 36670336 36860255 36710198 35830194 34260187
            34220315 34580375 34910433 35250488 35970485=20


=3D =3D =3D
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