Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 26 2023 00:51:56 AWUS01 KWNH 260051 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260650- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0338 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 850 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the Southern High Plains Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 260050Z - 260650Z SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually expand in coverage going through the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains. Some localized flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...The late-day visible satellite imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows a cluster of rather slow-moving showers and thunderstorms across portions of far southeast CO and northeast NM. This activity has generally tended to gain some organization over the last couple of hours and is in the process of evolving into a small-scale MCS as it loses latitude. Much of the activity was at least initially focused with support from orographics/upslope flow in vicinity of the Sangre De Cristo mountains, but over the last couple hours, this activity is being largely sustained by moist and very unstable low-level south-southeast flow up across the High Plains. MLCAPE values across southeast CO and northeast NM are as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg. Going into the evening hours, there should be a gradual nocturnal enhancement to the low-level flow, with the RAP forecasting a 30+ kt low-level jet into the southern flank of the current broken MCS activity. This coupled with divergent flow aloft downstream of a deep layer trough over the Southwest U.S. should favor some upscale growth and organization of the convection. Generally the MCS activity should tend to advance off to the east and southeast and into the nose of the greater instability pool over northeast NM and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandle region. The cell-motions are forecast to be relatively slow and this coupled with at least modestly anomalous moisture profiles (PWs about 1.0 to 1.5 standard deviations above normal) should result in rainfall rates that will be rather high, and potentially exceeding 1.5 inches/hour. The latest HRRR and experimental WoFS guidance supports upscale convective growth this evening with some cell-merger activity possible and perhaps brief instances of cell-training. Locally as much as 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible where the convection does tend to become a bit more focused. Some localized flash flooding will be possible as a result heading through the evening hours. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_R_3cBqVWHf_YG04mxEFH00-1u_uo6n5mg4qI0DcrXiqme2uHuxxC-v35UJbDjEYUXy2= O2mG8mCoVbvGuzACcFYMv0k$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37030257 36900188 36550144 35870128 35140167=20 34640271 34710390 35180462 35590501 36020516=20 36570487 36880348=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .