Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri May 26 2023 00:48:45 ACUS01 KWNS 260048 SWODY1 SPC AC 260046 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening over parts of West Texas and northeast New Mexico. Isolated strong cells may also produce marginal hail over eastern Montana. ....Southern High Plains into southwest Texas... Storm are intensifying over northeast NM, and are forecast to move southeastward toward the TX Panhandle through evening. Objective analysis shows an axis of 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE downstream of these storms along the NM/TX border, with modest west/northwest midlevel flow around the ridge atop low-level southeasterlies. This directional change with height is resulting in 35-40 kt effective shear, which should sustain scattered strong to severe storms this evening, as they move across the unstable air mass. Some diurnal increase in CIN is anticipated this evening, but the relatively deep and moist boundary layer may not limit storms very much over the next several hours. Reference severe thunderstorm watch #238 valid until 08Z. To the south, isolated supercells producing large, damaging hail will remain possible over the Big Bend region, prior to moving across the Rio Grande later this evening. Reference severe thunderstorm watch #237 valid until 03Z. ....Central/Eastern MT... MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg exists over much of eastern MT this evening, with light northerly winds west of the surface trough extending from western ND into southeast MT. While midlevel winds from the GGW sounding are only around 25 kt out of the south, this directional change with height is maximizing hodograph length with up to 40 kt effective shear. This may favor hail, possibly severe, with the stronger storms through the evening, until the boundary layer cools and storm coverage diminishes. ...Jewell.. 05/26/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .