Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 25 2023 18:03:47

AWUS01 KWNH 251803
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-260002-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0335
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

Areas affected...Northwest KS...Southwest NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251802Z - 260002Z

Summary...Efficient and slow moving convection continues early
this afternoon across portions of northwest KS between a pair of
MCVs. Additional development of slow moving storms are expected
over the next several hours, which could produce an additional 2-4
inches of rain and instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Very slow moving showers and thunderstorms have
persisted across northwest Kansas in the vicinity of two MCVs
analyzed moving due north per recent radar trends. Earlier, a
series of storm mergers resulted in a focused area of 3-4" of
rainfall across southwest Graham County, KS which prompted a Flash
Flood Warning and reports of flash flooding.

Trends in IR imagery alongside RAP proximity soundings corroborate
this earlier efficient rainfall production, with saturated
vertical profiles containing 500-1500 J/kg of "tall-skinny" MUCAPE
and warm cloud layers around 10,000 feet noted across northwest
KS. To the south, 20 kts of southerly 850 mb inflow continued to
direct 1.25" PWATs into western KS, around the 90th percentile for
this area compared to climatology. Meanwhile, weak vertical wind
profiles across the area will continue to support slow north and
east storm motions of 5-10 kts.

Over the next several hours, forcing from the MCVs in tandem with
insolation and isentropic forcing atop an outflow boundary are
expected to support additional slow moving thunderstorm clusters
with upwards of 1-2"/hour rain rates in the highlighted area.
While earlier CAM output struggled with convective placement and
coverage of the current activity, the 12z HREF highlights
increasing chances of 3-5" of rainfall across northwest KS and
southwest NE through 0Z tonight with the next round of activity
(25% and 10%, respectively). Thus, flash flooding is considered
possible through this evening where these slow moving efficient
storms can focus.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7Sjusg5I5QZ5F73uxzjevujpj4sY7nkvZsU4Sx4286SrRkxF6Gch1yJMXWDGm6g-Ey56=
QJm18YpfeC9pdbURvw5vxC8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40800092 40759995 40399909 39279855 38579863=20
            38039915 37919977 38010028 38560086 39030131=20
            39520182 40150201 40640166=20

=3D =3D =3D
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