Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 25 2023 16:17:40 ACUS01 KWNS 251617 SWODY1 SPC AC 251616 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of West Texas and northeast New Mexico. ....Synopsis... A broad but weak upper trough remains in place over the western states today, with a mid-level ridge axis extending from west TX northward into the Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of the western states and high plains, along with some risk of isolated strong/severe storms. However, a couple of small areas appear more favorable for more organized and longer-lived severe threat. ....Southwest TX... Morning surface analysis shows relatively deep southeasterly low-level winds across central into southwest TX. This will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass back to the Davis mountains of southeast NM and southwest TX. Strong daytime heating and orographic effects will lead to thunderstorm initiation by 21z over the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos region. Model soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds. These storms will likely stay focused near the higher terrain through the early evening before weakening after dark. ....Northeast NM/Northwest TX Panhandle... Similar to yesterday, a combination of southeasterly low-level winds, strong daytime heating, and ample moisture will lead to afternoon thunderstorm development near the Raton Ridge of northeast NM. This area remains under the upper level ridge, and the overall pattern appears to be a step-down from yesterday. However, all CAM solutions show a cluster of thunderstorms tracking slowly southeastward toward the northwest TX panhandle during the early evening. The low-level jet will strengthen during this period, with forecast profiles becoming sufficient for organized severe storms for a few hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threat. ....MT... Widespread dewpoints in the 50s and afternoon MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the mountains of central/southern MT. Deep south-southwesterly winds across the region will propagate these storms across the plains through the evening. Outflow dominant multicell storms capable of gusty winds and some hail appear to be the main threats. ...Hart/Lyons.. 05/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .