Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 25 2023 12:42:06 ACUS01 KWNS 251242 SWODY1 SPC AC 251240 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN MT... ....SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some producing severe hail and wind gusts, will be possible this afternoon and evening from eastern Montana southward into western Texas and eastern New Mexico. ....Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... An MCS is moving southeastward across west central TX, with convective outflow extending south and west of the MCS (into the Pecos Valley and eastern NM). The MCS should dissipate by late morning or early afternoon over the Edwards Plateau, as it encounters weaker buoyancy and larger convective inhibition. Meanwhile, the outflow will push low-level moisture southwestward into southwest TX and westward to the higher terrain in NM. There are no obvious perturbations embedded in the subtropical flow that will interact with the warm sector this afternoon, so storm coverage will be down compared to yesterday, with development tied to the east side of the high terrain this afternoon. A continuation of sufficiently long/straight hodographs and moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) will support isolated splitting supercells with large hail (1 to 2 inch diameter) and severe outflow gusts near 60 mph. A small cluster or two could emerge from the afternoon storms and spread eastward toward west TX late this evening. Other storms will be possible farther north into CO, where boundary-layer dewpoints of 45-52 F beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will support MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear around 30 kt will be sufficient for a mix of multicell clusters and some supercell structures, capable of producing isolated large hail and outflow gusts near 60 mph. ....Southern and eastern MT this afternoon/evening... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon/evening along a slow-moving front near the eastern MT border, and in the weak post-frontal upslope regime across southern MT. Midlevel southerly flow of 20-30 kt will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for a mix of clusters and some supercells structures, with the potential to produce isolated large hail and damaging gusts. ...Thompson/Broyles.. 05/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .