Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 25 2023 07:27:06 ACUS03 KWNS 250727 SWODY3 SPC AC 250726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern will likely feature western CONUS troughing and an eastern CONUS Rex block, with an upper ridge from centered over the Great Lakes and an upper low over the Southeast, early Saturday morning. This upper pattern is expected to persist throughout the period, with some indications that a modest shortwave trough will move through western periphery of the upper trough, from Utah into the northern High Plains. Surface pattern will remain largely unchanged from Friday, with expansive ridging centered over the Great Lakes and lee troughing across the High Plains. Moderate low-level moisture will persist across the Plains and High Plains, although some pockets of drier conditions are possible depending on the evolution of Friday's storms. Much like Friday, thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the High Plains during the afternoon and evening. Enough buoyancy and shear will be in place for a some severe thunderstorms as well. One or more corridors of greater severe thunderstorm coverage are possible. One such corridor is across the southern High Plains where vertical shear is expected to be strongest. Another corridor is across eastern WY and vicinity, where a low-amplitude shortwave trough may move through during the afternoon and evening. However, uncertainty regarding the low-level moisture field and some potential for capping precludes the confidence needed to delineate higher severe probabilities with this outlook. Lastly, a surface low is expected to deepen off the South Carolina coast throughout the period. Guidance varies on the strength and location of this low, and on how much of the warm sector advects inland. Some severe potential may result if the more aggressive scenarios are realized, but uncertainty currently precludes outlooking an area. ...Mosier.. 05/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .