Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 25 2023 04:56:05

AWUS01 KWNH 250456
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-250900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0334
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1255 AM EDT Thu May 25 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Northwest TX and Panhandle into
east-central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250500Z - 250900Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr to continue for
several more hours, potentially training/repeating over the same
areas. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible.

Discussion...A mesoscale convective system (MCS) remains rather
active at this hour, slowly propagating southward through the TX
Panhandle and far eastern NM towards greater instability. GOES
imagery shows quite clearly that the southwest flank remains the
most vigorous, with some cooling cloud tops still evident on the
eastern flank of the outflow as well. The expectation going
forward is for some additional development to continue to
backbuild along the southwestern flank, where MRMS rainfall
estimates lately have ranged from as high as 1-3"/hr. The
mesoscale environment to the south and east of the ongoing
convection is characterized by SB CAPE of 750-1500 J/kg,
precipitable water values of 0.9-1.1 inches (between the 75th and
90th percentile, per MAF and AMA sounding climatology), and
impressive effective bulk shear of 40-50 kts. This shear should
continue to keep convection organized over the next several hours
(despite relatively unimpressive instability and tropospheric
moisture content), with the mean wind (850-300 mb) favoring slow
movement (~10-15 kts) eastward. The concern is for localized
training/repeating of 1-3"/hr rates, given the east-west
orientation of convection along the southwest flank of the MCS.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7IE9xkDmut0etL5IG2ZwesKLdbAvizg7Cqc1Skrt3DWJDpS_fybHXaWuhxel6W-UB2hS=
nBD_p2Lczzpsf8QRlDlBuk8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34660222 34510096 34230029 33680025 33250057=20
            32960168 33010296 33830426 34390448 34510309=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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