Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu May 25 2023 04:54:05 ACUS01 KWNS 250454 SWODY1 SPC AC 250452 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some producing severe hail and wind gusts, will be possible this afternoon and evening from eastern Montana southward into western Texas and eastern New Mexico. ....Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain situated from the southern Plains into the upper MS Valley, with a building anticyclone aloft over MN/WI. Meanwhile, an upper trough will remain over the West, centered over NV, with low heights over parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes, with easterly winds along the Gulf Coast. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will stretch northwestward into eastern NM and west TX, with mid to upper 60s F over southern TX. To the north, a surface trough with wind shift will remain nearly stationary over eastern MT, with mid 50s F dewpoints there. ....Central and Eastern MT... Heating will occur near a surface trough today, steepening deep-layer lapse rates with cool midlevel temperatures aloft. Dewpoints will likely be in the mid 50s F, aided by evapotranspiration related to precipitation from the previous day. Forecast soundings show around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon, within a weak shear environment. The surface trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon storms, some producing marginal hail or locally strong wind gusts as they propagate northeastward into western ND. In addition, a subtle upper wave moving out of western WY and into MT may aid storm formation with associated midlevel moistening. Farther west, other afternoon storms are likely over central MT, aided by heating of the higher terrain. Here, midlevel temperatures will be colder, resulting in around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE despite lower dewpoints. Shear will be weak as well, but locally gusty winds or marginal hail may occur. ....Eastern CO into western TX... The stabilizing effects from lingering storms over the South Plains will likely inhibit destabilization today, with little help from weak 850 mb winds around 15 kt. Indications are that scattered storms will form very late in the afternoon, from the Front Range into northeast NM, and over Far West TX. Midlevel westerlies around 25 kt appear likely from NM into west TX during the afternoon, with stronger winds to 50 kt at 300 mb. The strongest instability may develop over southwest TX where 55-60 F dewpoints will be maintained with easterly surface winds. Large hail will be the primary concern, with hodographs favoring splitting cells. ...Jewell/Thornton.. 05/25/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .