Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0862
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 25 2023 04:39:36

ACUS11 KWNS 250439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250438=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-250615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...

Valid 250438Z - 250615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236
continues.

SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms continue to affect areas west of
Lubbock along the New Mexico/Texas border.  This activity will
persist for several more hours, although the overall severe threat
will likely slowly diminish through 2am CDT.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows multiple supercell
thunderstorms over parts of Roosevelt County NM and Bailey, Lamb,
and Cochran Counties TX.  These storms are moving slowly
south-southeastward at 10-15 knots, and have had a history of very
large hail and damaging wind gusts earlier this evening.  The
activity is along the northern edge of the stronger southeasterly
low-level jet, which should maintain convection for several more
hours.  However, slow diurnal cooling will result in stabilization
and eventual decoupling of surface-based parcels.  While occasional
bouts of large hail and damaging winds will be possible for several
more hours, climatology and recent CAM/WoFS runs suggest the more
organized threat may begin to wane by 2am CDT.

...Hart.. 05/25/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-S1Uzyc_IP3_n8ryHx_gSxDsXSNdV08a-jFuQF2TfClJlr8bqytNJiubmp7hiL8TeMExTRksi=
Hmu31XEF99Phy4Nm6Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34340377 33930254 33510214 32860222 32890289 33220327
            33620353 34340377=20


=3D =3D =3D
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