Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu May 25 2023 00:46:35

ACUS01 KWNS 250046
SWODY1
SPC AC 250045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Primarily damaging hail and wind are expected over the southern High
Plains through late evening. A brief tornado or two may occur along
the eastern New Mexico/West Texas border.

....Far eastern NM into west TX...
A north-south axis of around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE currently exists over
much of western TX, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft and
near the upper ridge. Visible imagery shows an expansive CU field
over the region, and GPS PW values remain around 1.00" in an
uncapped air mass.

Numerous storms currently exist over northeast NM and into the far
western TX Panhandle, exhibiting mainly multicellular tendencies
with one supercell complex evident southeast of TCC. Still, ample
instability and a mean storm motion to the southeast may allow for a
few transient supercells, with hail over 2.00" diameter. The 00Z AMA
sounding shows steep midlevel lapse rates, but a straight hodograph
due to weak winds below 700 mb. The large storm complex over Quay
county appears to have the greatest chance of a tornado as it
evolves south/southeast toward the TX state line. Otherwise, strong
outflow production should eventually result in scattered damaging
winds, along with a persistent hail risk as storms move through the
South Plains later this evening. Severe potential will favor the
instability plume, with inflow aided by increasing 850 mb winds out
of the southeast tonight.

....Eastern MT...
Scattered storms persist near a north-south oriented surface trough
over eastern MT. The 00Z GGW sounding shows ample instability with
MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg, and winds veering with height. Deep-layer
shear is only 25-30 kt, but cool temperatures aloft combined with
favorable moist southeast low-level winds may support a hail threat
for a few more hours.

...Jewell.. 05/25/2023

$$

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