Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 24 2023 23:24:00

AWUS01 KWNH 242323
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0333
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
722 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...Northeast NM...TX Panhandle...OK Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242322Z - 250500Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are rapidly developing ahead of a surface
trough across eastern New Mexico late this afternoon and will
slowly move east across the Panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.=20=20
Rainfall rates of 1 inch/20 minutes with the slow moving
supercells may result in some instances of flooding through 5Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars and infrared satellite
imagery are depicting a steady increase in strong convection
across northeastern New Mexico.  This is developing in response to
outflow boundaries from earlier convection farther west impinging
upon moist surface-850mb flow from the southeast, along with
deeper layer forcing from a mid-level vortmax situated over
southeast Colorado.  Effective bulk shear parameters are favorable
for organized and some back-building storms that will tend to
increase the duration of high rainfall rates for parts of the
outlook area.  Mixed layer CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg and PWs
exceeding one inch over portions of the TX/OK Panhandles per
recent SPC mesoanalysis will produce a favorable environment for
cells with strong updrafts and high rainfall rates.

Recent CAM guidance is in relatively good agreement on potraying a
well developed MCS tracking across the region through the evening
hours, with the best potential for slow cell motions before 3Z,
and then the complex will likely become more progressive while
still maintaining heavy downpours.  HREF neighborhood
probabilities also indicate a 30% chance of both 1-hour QPF
exceeding flash flood guidance and 2+ inch hourly rainfall rates,
mainly across western portions of the outlook area.  Parts of the
region also had 1-3 inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours, and
those areas are more vulnerable to additional heavy rain.  Flash
flooding is considered possible through 5Z.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_vApAGbSxu-xbkVyOBh9P7RxtPOtxW-IQTJh1Vm3frc_PVl3e7PalbeZiE8Zbn99xEme=
JpvdtKoEwPDIrM6OOvf6sEY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...PUB...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37070315 36910218 36470106 35990004 34869950=20
            33439950 33000005 33000126 33290296 33740359=20
            34300396 34850404 35450404 36420399 36950363=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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