Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 24 2023 19:54:53

AWUS01 KWNH 241954
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-250200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0332
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...Northern NV...Northwest UT...Southern ID

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241953Z - 250200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are increasing in
coverage across northern portions of the Intermountain West.  Some
of the stronger cells will be capable of producing localized heavy
rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch in 30 minutes, which may lead to
some instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars and visible satellite imagery
are indicating a steady increase in convection this afternoon in
the general vicinity of a quasi-stationary front and a nearby
upper level trough with right entrance upper jet dynamics aiding
ascent.  The evolving convection has a similar look to what
developed yesterday across many of the same areas, with multiple
rounds of storms likely as the deep layer flow remains roughly
parallel to the frontal boundary.  There is also anomalous
moisture profiles in place for this time of year with PWs
exceeding 0.75 inch in some portions of the outlook area, and
combined with steepening lapse rates will support the additional
development of scattered to numerous showers and storms through
2Z.  Some of these cells will likely be slow moving, and locations
affected by this will be at greater risk for flash flooding.

The latest HREF neighborhood probabilities are up to 40% for the
exceedance of 1 hour flash flood guidance near the NV/ID border,
with 10 year ARIs near 50% for the same area.  The latest CAM
guidance suite indicates the potential for scattered 1 to 2 inch
rainfall maxima for the six hour period ending at 2Z, and this in
combination with heavy rainfall yesterday will tend to increase
the potential for flooding where slow moving cells persist the
longest, particularly across burn scar locations and steep valleys.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_V729DBd5Kq7G8iyEqSNUcWtHUkMuaOYVeegWWkREejmOs04SbbfOtdjxlsT32Ey39iD=
jP_x_ahsUOwAwtU1RQ9INUA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...MSO...PIH...REV...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44311260 43921132 42641104 41701107 40701160=20
            39971302 39341481 38641700 38761847 39551933=20
            40341974 40961968 41301937 41491886 41991777=20
            42521660 43011567 43771450=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.