Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0853
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 24 2023 19:04:29

ACUS11 KWNS 241904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241903=20
WYZ000-UTZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-242130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0853
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...Northern NV...Southern ID...Northwest UT...Western
WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241903Z - 242130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently increased from northern NV into
far southern ID, immediately in advance of a mid/upper-level
shortwave trough across northwest NV. Modestly enhanced midlevel
flow and effective shear east/northeast of the shortwave may
eventually support some modestly organized storms, as MLCAPE
increases into the 500-1500 J/kg range through the afternoon. The
greatest storm coverage is expected in closer proximity to the
shortwave from northeast NV into southern ID, though more isolated
storms will continue to develop across favored higher terrain areas
across northern UT and western WY. Modestly steep midlevel lapse
rates will support some isolated hail potential, while the strongest
outflow-dominant cells/clusters will also be capable of localized
severe gusts. With the threat expected to remain rather isolated,
watch issuance is not expected.

...Dean/Grams.. 05/24/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-_AsxOWN6Lp54gYKy_11Gcepnlv8tp0nBO4N9HftVs5K6GqMm3VVQWcFkf5lljt9USfp8IMon=
PPirE4xB6TwXsm0Ofo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   41491744 43991232 44691105 44051018 43830982 43291003
            40561071 39801116 39601308 39291524 39001714 39001755
            39731762 41491744=20


=3D =3D =3D
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