Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 24 2023 18:36:54

AWUS01 KWNH 241836
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-FLZ000-250035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0331
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...Central and Southern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241835Z - 250035Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorm clusters are developing across
much of south-central Florida in the vicinity of a stalled cold
front. Rainfall rates of 2-2.5" per hour with slow storm motions
will support isolated instances of flash flooding through this
evening, particularly over urban areas.

Discussion...Radar and visible satellite imagery depict widespread
thunderstorm clusters this afternoon across much of south-central
Florida in the vicinity of a stalled cold front and weak surface
low analyzed just north of Lake Okeechobee. Rainfall rates upwards
of 2-2.5" per hour were recently estimated within the most intense
convective cores by single-source and multi-sensor sources, with
slow easterly storm motions of 10-15 kts noted. The prolonged
residence times of these high rainfall rates recently lead to
focused, elevated FLASH CREST responses of 200-800 cfs/smi along
the Urban Corridor.

Through the afternoon, the expectation is for the focused area of
convergence along the front, in tandem with a weak vort max
analyzed to the northwest to focus additional slow moving
thunderstorms as it interacts with 3000 J/KG MUCAPE and 1.8" PWATS
across south-central FL. While vertical wind shear will remain
weak, 20 kts of effective bulk shear across the highlighted area
will help maintain some loose updraft organization and longevity
over the next several hours.

By 0Z, much of the CAM guidance suggests spotty rainfall totals of
3-4 inches is possible where convection can linger the longest
before the loss of daytime heating and undercutting by outflows.
This suggests some flash flooding is possible, particularly atop
hydrophobic urban areas where runoff stagnates.

Asherman=20=20

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-pTKp7ECALdn69qmucAY4IISCrwb7HqfAGFPhTwbXS4R7RofZUF5hHLwpAN8RSsfD4vW=
o3L16eVMtE5zCbR3desfDzo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...MAF...MFL...MLB...OUN...SJT...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35680077 35509967 34759869 33839870 32949931=20
            32150052 32040069 31510139 31300162 30960187=20
            30520196 30150216 30050249 30010296 30140316=20
            30430329 30750334 31220360 31860409 32300416=20
            32730375 33220321 33690274 34320224 35100149=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
28308253 27978129 27498048 26898008 25558009=20
            25258050 25578074 26338113 26948163 27608265=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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