Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 24 2023 12:44:56 ACUS01 KWNS 241244 SWODY1 SPC AC 241243 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EASTERN NM/WEST TX... ....SUMMARY... Isolated very large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter), severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible this afternoon/evening across the southern High Plains. ....West TX/eastern NM this afternoon/evening... An overnight MCS is dissipating this morning while approaching southeast TX. A broad swath of central/northwest TX was overturned by this MCS, and the richer low-level moisture has been displaced southwest to the Rio Grande and Pecos Valleys. There will be gradual modification through the day across northwest TX, but the primary moisture return corridor will be around the periphery of the overnight MCS, from southwest TX into southeast NM. Surface heating/mixing will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-3000 J/kg range and reduce convective inhibition along the dryline, which will allow at least widely scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Low-level east-southeasterly flow beneath midlevel westerlies will result in straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, which will favor splitting supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter) and isolated severe outflow gusts. Farther north, thunderstorm development is expected by mid afternoon near and just east of the Raton Mesa (along the NM/CO border). Supercells with large hail and isolated severe outflow gusts will be possible initially, and storms may grow upscale into a cluster while spreading southeastward into the TX Panhandle. The southeast extent of the severe threat tonight is uncertain and will depend on the degree of destabilization this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains. ....Northern Great Basin to MT this afternoon/evening... Embedded vorticity maxima will rotate north-northeastward from NV to central MT, around the eastern periphery of a slow-moving midlevel trough from northern CA to eastern WA. Lapse rates will not be as steep as yesterday, but surface heating in cloud breaks will drive SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg near and just east of a slow-moving front from northeast NV across southeast ID into central MT. Thunderstorm development will be focused along and just east of this front, where modest enhancement to midlevel flow will support the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. ....Central/south FL this afternoon... A diffuse front across central FL, and local sea breeze boundaries/collisions farther south, will again support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. The stronger surface heating and larger CAPE/DCAPE will be confined to along and south of the front, where isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph and some hail will be possible. ...Thompson/Broyles.. 05/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .