Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 24 2023 07:31:28 ACUS03 KWNS 240731 SWODY3 SPC AC 240730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains on Friday. ....Synopsis... Upper ridging is expected to extend from northeast Mexico through the Upper Midwest and Ontario early Friday morning. This ridging will be flanked by upper troughing, with the western CONUS trough extending from British Columbia through southern CA and the eastern CONUS trough extending from a low over ME into the northeast Gulf. Upper pattern over the central and eastern CONUS will gradually shift towards a Rex Block while the western CONUS troughing makes modest eastward progress. Surface pattern will remain similar to Thursday, with extensive ridging covering much of the eastern CONUS and lee troughing throughout the High Plains. At least modest low-level moisture is anticipated as far north as eastern MT, where mid-50s surface dewpoints are possible during the afternoon. Upper 50s surface dewpoints appear likely across the central High Plains and eastern NM, with low 60s over the TX Panhandle. This low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to foster moderate buoyancy and afternoon thunderstorm development throughout the High Plains. Mid-level flow across the region will be modest, but southeasterly surface winds will still result in decent veering with height and moderate bulk shear. The strongest shear is expected across the southern High Plains, where the mid-level flow will be faster and more westerly (versus southwesterly farther north). These environmental conditions suggest a more expansive severe thunderstorm potential than in previous days. However, subtle differences in the low-level moisture field could have a significant impact on storm coverage and intensity. Additionally, evolution of the previous day's storms is uncertain. These factors merit deferring higher severe probabilities to later outlooks when the area(s) of higher severe coverage are more predictable. ...Mosier.. 05/24/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .