Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 24 2023 07:01:13 AWUS01 KWNH 240701 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-240959- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0330 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 AM EDT Wed May 24 2023 Areas affected...much of Texas and far southern Oklahoma Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 240659Z - 240959Z Summary...An elongated MCS continues to move east-southeastward across the discussion area, posing a limited flash flood threat as storms make their way through Austin/San Antonio and the Dallas Metro areas over the next couple hours. Discussion...A mature convective complex was making steady southeastward progress across the Texas Hill Country and areas near the Red River tonight. The flash flood threat across most areas has been fairly limited by appreciable forward progress/propagation across the discussion area - especially with a bowing segment located just northwest of Austin at 0635Z. Somewhat greater concern exists with a couple scenarios - 1) the slower progress of the line from Weatherford, TX to Lawton, OK, which was allowing for locally heavier rain rates (exceeding 1.5 inches/hr) to materialize and 2) with upstream convection now beginning to materialize near San Angelo in a favorable manner for localized training. On the whole, rain rates were still less than or approaching 1 inch/hr in most spots, suggesting that flash flooding should be localized at best in the short term. The eastern extent of the MCS's forward motion is a bit uncertain over the next 2-4 hours, and it appears that more stable air east of I-35 and a lack of low-level flow should result in an overall weakening of the MCS. In the short-term, however, the MCS was making progress toward more populated areas of the I-35 corridor from DFW to SAT this morning, and ~1500 J/kg MLCAPE was present just ahead of the ongoing complex. With urbanized land surfaces beginning to factor in over the next 1-2 hours, a localized flash flood threat cannot be completely ruled out. Also, depending on the evolution of upstream convection along an axis from San Angelo to just north of Junction, perhaps another area of focus for localized flash flooding could materialize if more focused training of cells could occur. FFGs are lowest generally west of I-35 (<2.5 inch/hr) and increase dramatically east of I-35, further suggesting that any flash flood risk should be focused and perhaps short-lived over the next couple hours. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5f7GXIkuQCQvKp5VMyaWP59NK_YJDxsTD4bHAy2SzCWlSEjFgNz886XW39aB5vR1XMLd= ifDjVrBEwK0wyLgc2OdlEG4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34769769 34289644 33199569 32139575 31039599=20 30459676 29599775 29329871 30409977 31550033=20 31469941 31359926 31309865 31569817 32869811=20 33609822 34749875=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .