Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 23 2023 23:01:37

AWUS01 KWNH 232301
FFGMPD
FLZ000-240300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0328
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023

Areas affected...Central and Northern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232259Z - 240300Z

SUMMARY...Numerous strong storms with intense rainfall rates up to
3 inches per hour are likely to persist for a few more hours
across mainly the western half of the Florida Peninsula.  Some
instances of rapid inundation flooding are possible through 10 pm
local time.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a steady
increase in slow moving multi-cell convection from the Interstate
10 corridor to near Lake Okeechobee.  Enhanced sea breeze
convergence with a stronger easterly component, combined with
mixed layer CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg per recent SPC mesoanalysis, is
creating a favorable environment for intense updrafts.  Effective
bulk shear is also higher than normal at 25-35 knots, which is
leading to better organization of the storm clusters and leading
to multiple instances of cell training.  PWs are also high, in the
1.8 to 2 inch range, and this is leading to deep moisture
convergence and more efficient rainfall production.

The latest HREF neighborhood probabilities are up to 30% for the
exceedance of 1 hour flash flood guidance in the 7-10pm time
period, with 10 year ARIs also near 30% for the same time.  The
strongest cells could easily produce 2 inches in just 30 minutes.=20
The latest CAM guidance suite indicates the potential for
scattered 3 to 6 inch rainfall maxima for the six hour period
ending at 11 pm, and this in combination with heavy rainfall
earlier today and yesterday will tend to increase the potential
for flooding where slow moving cells persist the longest.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7T7u2EUIsMCdhNbariKAJCEPLz652fIzZmuonZLbF0YTalxLWdP5eECgQbhMIJQmakPq=
Jf11I9XmTethoXCyhQlFUu4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30368354 30228295 29618222 29148193 28798164=20
            28128133 27368102 26878097 26388110 26328150=20
            27048189 27468227 27818257 28388268 28998288=20
            29358329 29798376 30028395 30218398=20

=3D =3D =3D
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