Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0847
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 23 2023 20:50:07

ACUS11 KWNS 232049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232049=20
TXZ000-232145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0847
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Areas affected...,portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232049Z - 232145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A persistent storm and some additional convection may pose
a risk for a few damaging gusts and hail this afternoon. A weather
watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2040 UTC, regional radar showed a persistent
thunderstorm over parts of Montgomery County TX. Located ahead of a
remnant MCV and along an air mass boundary, this storm has shown
occasional organization with a recent gusts to 44 and 42 kt recorded
near Huntsville, and Conroe, TX respectively. Ahead of the storm, a
sufficiently unstable air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will
likely allow for continued updraft maintenance. Additional
convective development was noted ahead of this storm this afternoon
suggesting some upscale growth is possible. Vertical shear is weak
at 20-25 kt. However, enhanced convergence south of the MCV and
along the air mass boundary may support a low-end risk for damaging
wind gusts and some marginally severe hail as these storms move
across the Houston Metro over the next couple of hours. Given the
limited convective coverage a weather watch is unlikely.

...Lyons/Grams.. 05/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5bmV5-YJpfjrioMUvrXL1CrPIs2xDFMt-ysJJUEJx0qK_e6xcHFOY6GAMiHeQYxNEp_GVhTzr=
Q5selEsUrbdYvf_sws$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...

LAT...LON   30559562 30639553 30519530 30379512 30089493 29739481
            29349475 29179480 28899507 29109519 29549553 29909565
            30369565 30559562=20


=3D =3D =3D
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