Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0846
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 23 2023 19:38:19

ACUS11 KWNS 231938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231937=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231937Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, regional radar analysis depicted
scattered thunderstorms ongoing across the FL Panhandle ahead of a
weak MCV over southern AL. Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, the
seasonably warm and moist Gulf Coast air mass was supporting
moderate buoyancy sufficient for robust updrafts. Slight enhancement
of mid-level flow from the MCV was noted on area VADs with 20-25 kt
of effective shear. While not overly strong, the enhanced shear in
combination with multiple sea breeze boundaries may support a few
organized multi-cells and transient supercell structures across the
FL Panhandle this afternoon. Given the moderate buoyancy, marginally
severe hail will be possible with the strongest cores. Damaging
gusts from sporadic downbursts with the more persistent clusters may
also be possible. The limited potential for storm organization and
uncertainty on the longevity of any severe threat suggests a weather
watch is unlikely this afternoon.

...Lyons/Grams.. 05/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8RJC2Upes9V6dNxpIsdt_8_zXOvpUAeLhYKSp1Mm7HpgkB5_rmFE3HtnlTlg2a5Ic5EJYK386=
X8XqERQdaQzr1lPyi8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30278704 30668730 30858720 30908716 31018633 30598440
            30408378 30308371 30068357 29958367 29758461 29638499
            29598529 29958567 30118606 30278704=20


=3D =3D =3D
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