Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 23 2023 19:36:33

AWUS01 KWNH 231936
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0327
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 PM EDT Tue May 23 2023

Areas affected...Northeast NV...northwest UT...Southern
ID...Western WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231933Z - 240100Z

Summary...Bands of thunderstorms are showings signs of development
and intensification this afternoon across portions of northeast
Nevada into Idaho.  Periods of training with rainfall rates of 1
inch/hour could lead to instances of flash flooding through this
evening.

Discussion...Visible satellite imagery across the Intermountain
West depicts widespread agitated cumulus and intensifying storms
this afternoon ahead of a quasi-stationary front in the region and
an incoming upper trough.  This activity remains nearly anchored
in place with deep layer flow oriented parallel to this boundary.=20
Anomalous levels of mid level moisture (PWs 0.75 to 1 inch) in
combination with steepening lapse rates over the region and right
entrance upper level jet dynamics will support the additional
development of scattered to widespread showers and storms through
the remainder of the afternoon.  Some of these cells will likely
be slow moving, and locations affected by this will be at greater
risk for flash flooding.

The latest CAM guidance suite is depicting scattered QPF maxima of
0.75 to 1.50 inches through 1Z this evening, with much of this
likely falling within a one to two hour time period for any given
location.  The latest HREF probabilities indicate a 30-50%  chance
of 10-year AR1 exceedance across portions of the outlook area,
particulary across northeastern Nevada.  Additionally, any heavy
rain over existing snowpack across the higher terrain could also
lead to enhanced run-off concerns.  Burnscars and canyons will be
at increased risk.

Hamrick/Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4Qrct7YDJIhV9h9YgnuzzN9oz6Jp5mWhZLldZDbASOOEOPLrIUUdGYx1y-YPuYy-qk14=
vnRbvm-kNmSJopTkxVpzXuU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PIH...RIW...SLC...TFX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...MBRFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44651172 43591057 41251109 38451419 38131647=20
            38951742 41711703 42971454=20

=3D =3D =3D
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