Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0844
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 23 2023 18:50:18

ACUS11 KWNS 231850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231850=20
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-232115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0844
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Nevada...northwestern Utah
and southern Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231850Z - 232115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will increase in coverage early
this afternoon. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible but coverage is expected to be too low for a weather watch.

DISCUSSION...On the eastern fringes of a broad upper-level low over
portions of the Pacific Northwest, early afternoon visible imagery
showed deepening thunderstorms along the higher terrain of
northeastern NV and western UT. As subtle height falls and diurnal
heating continue ahead of the upper low, additional thunderstorms
are forecast to evolve across portions of the northern Great Basin
this afternoon. Despite limited surface moisture, diurnal heating
and steep low/mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km were helping support
500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE from northeastern NV to southern ID. Stronger
mid-level flow associated with the trough is displaced to the west
of buoyancy plume suggesting storm organization will be limited.
However, glancing influence of effective shear near 25 kt may
support a few more persistent multi-cell updrafts into the early
evening. With steep low-level lapse rates and LCL heights in excess
of 2km, the primary severe threat with these storms will be isolated
strong to severe wind gusts from enhanced downdrafts. Given the
coverage of organized storms and the associated severe risk is
expected to remain modest, a weather watch is unlikely this
afternoon.

...Lyons/Grams.. 05/23/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7Nv-7lMoX_VCswo777RJqFbOiHgUdwRJHuVq6PQeMzKP_ypkWaxL97mXRc2JvaCq8Yy0WEWJI=
aG9qVo4svoh8d8kINw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   40361682 42671457 43111396 43101291 42931251 41821190
            40911229 39681274 39111371 38921463 38941548 39191624
            40361682=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.