Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 23 2023 17:32:49 ACUS02 KWNS 231732 SWODY2 SPC AC 231731 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AREA... ....SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into northwest Texas. ....Central and southern High Plains into central Texas... While Day 1 convection will affect convective potential across portions of the southern Plains for Tuesday, it appears that destabilization of the seasonably moist boundary layer should result in scattered storm development during the afternoon and into the evening. While prior outflows will likely focus some convective development, a favored location for new storm development appears to be along the front range, south to northeastern New Mexico. While potential for locally gusty/damaging winds and hail will be possible across a broad area -- extending as far southeastward as central Texas, the greatest risk appears to exist across the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. Here, storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado, and then potentially grow upscale into a southeastward-propagating MCS through late afternoon and into the evening. Aided by low-level southeasterly flow beneath moderate mid-level northwesterlies, potential for damaging winds and hail can be expected as the MCS matures, spreading southeastward toward parts of western North Texas before weakening diurnally. ....Central and southern Florida... With the southern portion of an eastern U.S. trough lingering across Florida, providing both a slightly enhanced flow field aloft, and cool mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, scattered, potentially strong afternoon thunderstorms are forecast to once again develop across much of the Florida Peninsula. Storms are expected near both sea-breeze boundaries, with some merging of storms over central portions of the Peninsula expected. Aided by the enhanced mid-level flow, a few of the stronger cells may produce locally strong/damaging wind gusts, and marginal hail into the early evening hours before storms diurnally diminish. ....Parts of the Great Basin into Montana... Modest afternoon destabilization is forecast across portions of the Great Basin/northern Rockies Tuesday, in the vicinity of a surface front associated with mid-level troughing that will remain quasi-stationary across the West. As afternoon convection develops near the front, and over terrain-favored areas, a few stronger/organized storms should evolve -- aided by mid-level south-southwesterlies around 30 kt. Given potential for locally strong/gusty winds with stronger cells through late afternoon/early evening, and potential for hail as well, upgrade to MRGL risk is warranted. ...Goss.. 05/23/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .