Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 23 2023 08:34:46

ACUS48 KWNS 230834
SWOD48
SPC AC 230833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to indicate a blocking pattern
across the eastern CONUS this weekend, with modest ridging across
the southern Plains. Upper troughing will likely persist across the
western CONUS, with several shortwave troughs potentially moving
within this troughing into the High Plains. However, given the weak
flow expected to be in place and the lack of more definable
features, predictability of these waves is limited.

Even with the somewhat low predictability of upper pattern, the
surface pattern will likely be well established, with ridging
extending from Upper Midwest into the Northeast and lee troughing
across the High Plains. As such, a repeated scenario of daily
afternoon thunderstorm development across the southern and central
High Plains is anticipated. This will result in a broad area of at
least low severe potential across the High Plains through the
weekend and into early next week. Some corridors of greater severe
potential may become apparent as the forecast range decreases.

...Mosier.. 05/23/2023

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