Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue May 23 2023 06:01:14 ACUS02 KWNS 230601 SWODY2 SPC AC 230559 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and southern High Plains into northwest Texas. ....Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to persist across the central CONUS on Wednesday, while the flanking upper troughs both deepen slightly. Deepening of the western CONUS upper troughing is expected later in the period as shortwave trough rotates through its base over central/southern CA. Primary feature within the eastern CONUS troughing will be a shortwave trough expected to move through eastern Ontario and southern Quebec and into the Northeast while maturing. At the surface, lee troughing is expected to sharpen somewhat on Wednesday, contributing to stronger southeasterly surface winds. These stronger winds will result in better low-level convergence, particularly over the central and northern High Plains, with afternoon thunderstorms anticipated across the majority of the High Plains. Farther north and east, a strong cold front is expected to push southward/southeastward across the OH Valley and Northeast. Modest buoyancy may develop ahead of this front, supporting thunderstorm potential. .....Central and Southern High Plains... Thunderstorms are once again forecast to develop during the afternoon over both the higher terrain and along the lee trough. Northwesterly flow will then take these storms into a more buoyant air mass downstream, with consolidation along outflows into a more coherent line possible. Some potential exist for a few discrete cells, particularly along the lee trough, resulting in a non-zero threat for isolated hail and/or a brief tornado or two. ....Central TX... Remnant MCV generated by preceding convection may be in place over the region early Wednesday morning. Some enhancement of both the mid-level flow and low-level convergence is possible in the vicinity of this vorticity max, contributing to some potential for a few stronger, more organized storms. However, uncertainty regarding the location and strength of this MCV limits forecast confidence, precluding the addition of any associated severe probabilities with this outlook. ....Great Basin into the northern Rockies... Afternoon thunderstorms are possible ahead of subtle shortwave trough rounding the based of the larger upper troughing over the western CONUS. Low-level moisture will be meager, but modest buoyancy is still anticipated via cold temperatures aloft. Given the deep southerly flow aloft anticipated, a strong gust or two is possible with any more robust and persistent updrafts, although overall coverage will likely be limited. ....Northeast... A narrow corridor of modest buoyancy may develop over the region ahead of an approaching shortwave and attendant cold front. Forcing for ascent along the front will be augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave, supporting showers and thunderstorms as it interacts with this buoyancy. However, overall buoyancy will be mitigate by poor mid-level lapse rates, and updrafts will likely be shallow and short lived. As such, the severe potential is expected to be low. ...Mosier.. 05/23/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .