Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 23 2023 00:52:43

ACUS01 KWNS 230052
SWODY1
SPC AC 230051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across portions of the
southern High Plains through late evening. Large hail and severe
wind gusts will be the primary hazards.

....01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a weak, slow-moving
short-wave trough over the High Plains from western KS into the
eastern TX Panhandle. Diurnally enhanced convection that developed
ahead of this feature has conglomerated into a 200+ mi broken line
of storms extending from southwest OK to northeast of MAF. This
activity has produced a considerable number of hail reports late
this afternoon over the southern/southeastern TX Panhandle, but a
transition to more of a wind threat appears to be underway.
Northwesterly flow is increasing across the TX South Plains as the
mid-level trough advances east. This should aid southeast
propagation to the aforementioned linear MCS. Current thinking is
this line of convection should progress across
northwest/west-central TX late this evening with an attendant risk
for wind and some hail.

Across the northern High Plains of central/eastern MT, isolated
convection persists ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough over the
northern Rockies. Modest southwesterly flow at 500mb will contribute
to some organization, but moisture is a bit scant across this
region, along with instability. Even so, steep lapse rates through
6km favor at least some risk for wind and perhaps some hail.

...Darrow.. 05/23/2023

$$

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