Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0842
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 22 2023 23:18:43

ACUS11 KWNS 222318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222318=20
TXZ000-230115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...much of northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...

Valid 222318Z - 230115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may persist well into the evening, moving
generally southeastward across northwest Texas. Both hail and severe
gusts will be possible, and additional downstream counties may
require a watch.

DISCUSSION...Storms moving from the TX Panhandle into the South
Plains are currently of mixed mode, and producing both severe hail
and wind. A recent gust to 66 mph was measured in Crosby County, TX
with a severe cell, and other cells in the vicinity may produce
similar results. Other storms toward CDS are showing a linear mode,
and this may eventually become the dominant type over the next few
hours.

Visible imagery shows a CU field extending downstream across
northwest TX, as far east as Young and Stephens Counties, but
generally north of San Angelo. This region has favorable theta-e
with upper 50s F dewpoints and where temperatures peaked in the
upper 80s F.

Although only modest northwest flow aloft exists, it is favorably
situated over moist southeasterly low-level winds, creating around
35 kt effective shear. The current batch of storms will continue to
interact, and possibly merge into an MCS over the next several
hours. As this becomes more likely, areas downstream may need to be
in a watch for damaging gusts and hail.

...Jewell.. 05/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-Dc0KXhy80QKTt_eltgX4jQTVMoDaWkllinTvSHPw4niEXYjoggQRbk6CcdSXY-hDXxw3_spH=
Baik6Y27YfJlJ-UeAM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32579875 32479895 32399967 32460051 32690098 33040133
            33390161 33840134 33990069 34350031 34229995 33829940
            33489886 33279855 32809859 32579875=20


=3D =3D =3D
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