Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0841
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 22 2023 22:59:11

ACUS11 KWNS 222259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222258=20
TXZ000-230000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...southwestern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222258Z - 230000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may pose risk of severe hail and
gusty winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development along and east of the dryline
has been noted in the last hour across southwestern Texas. Shear
orientation to the dryline supports cell movement off the boundary,
though storm motions are slow around 10-15 kts. The hodograph from
MAF is largely linear, supporting splitting cells. This trend has
been noted on radar, with left splits moving northward faster at
around 15-20 kts. Given steep lapse rates around 7-8 C/km, MLCAPE
around 1000-1500 J/kg, and deep-layer shear around 30-40 kts,
instances of large hail (isolated 2+ inches) will be possible.
Additionally, a few severe gusts may be possible. Given the isolated
nature of this threat, a watch is not likely to be needed.

...Thornton/Edwards.. 05/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_KSggEsPvKY9mGKKVHTTR8lHHjvzn1Rr3Sq7uXGVL26fcsHKBeX9waxrdiA_5JE6pNIuh_VMj=
-Nef5_Gw3QFrN1i91Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31580286 31920263 32340240 32580230 32870213 32920184
            32890144 32820113 32610098 32350103 32090125 31120145
            31040191 31040222 31120257 31320287 31580286=20


=3D =3D =3D
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