Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 22 2023 22:22:19

AWUS01 KWNH 222222
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-230300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0325
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
620 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...Western TX...Southeast NM...Western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222219Z - 230300Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of thunderstorms will pose a
localized flash flood threat across parts of northwestern TX into
southeastern NM and southwestern OK. Peak rainfall rates of 1.5 to
2.5 inches per hour will be possible through 3Z.

DISCUSSION...Trends in thunderstorms across the outlook area over
the past couple of hours have shown increasing coverage per recent
Doppler radar and visible satellite imagery.  These storms are
developing in response to convergent low level flow in a
increasingly unstable environment with mixed layer CAPE generally
on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg and PWS increasing to 1.0 to 1.3
inches per latest SPC mesoanalysis.  There is also a vortmax
centered over far southwestern Kansas and this is also aiding in
ascent across the region.  Bulk effective shear on the order of
25-35 knots and nearly unidirectional flow in the 700-300mb layer
will likely result in some repeated rounds of convection with high
rainfall rates, possibly over 2 inches per hour at times.

The latest CAM guidance suite is suggesting the potential for
scattered QPF maxima of 2 to 4 inches, with this being most likely
across the northern portion of the outlook area where the
combination of kinematics and moisture profiles is most conducive.
 These storms should slowly drift towards the southeast through
the evening hours, and the latest HRRR guidance indicates the
convection should congeal more into a broken line and then advance
more quickly, thus limiting the flash flood threat beyond 3Z.=20
Slow moving cells closer to the NM/TX border are not expected to
be as widespread, but the slow cell motions will also be a flash
flood threat on a localized level.


Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6IrF5KxpM_SKcJa6GVMojc3wXP5vPTGRUM1oN2fbdfwB69Lv-sbUcRTBgDxVYvRI5SSq=
BLb8VADtfAq462p48a-HVkQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35680077 35509967 34759869 33839870 32949931=20
            32150052 32040069 31510139 31300162 30960187=20
            30520196 30150216 30050249 30010296 30140316=20
            30430329 30750334 31220360 31860409 32300416=20
            32730375 33220321 33690274 34320224 35100149=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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