Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 22 2023 20:52:02

AWUS01 KWNH 222052
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0324
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
450 PM EDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...Southern AL...Southwest GA...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222050Z - 230100Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms will pose a localized flash
flood risk across portions of the Florida Panhandle into southern
portions of Georgia and Alabama through 01Z this evening. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 inches in 30 minutes are expected with the strongest
storms.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are depicting an increase in
slow moving strong convection from central portions of Alabama to
interior portions of the Florida Panhandle.  The thunderstorms
that have been ongoing across much of southern Georgia and
extending south to the Interstate 10 corridor have produced an
outflow boundary that is nearly anchored in place, with moist
southwesterly low level flow intercepting this boundary and
helping to sustain additional convection over the next several
hours.  The upstream environment is moderately unstable with mixed
layer CAPE generally on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg per recent SPC
mesoanalysis, and this in combination with PWs in the 1.5 to 2.0
inch range will provide sufficient fuel for additional
thunderstorm development, with a very slow westward trend.

The latest HRRR has a good overall depiction of the ongoing
convection over this region and thus would serve as a useful guide
in expected QPF over the next several hours, and this model is
indicating the potential for scattered maxima of 2-4 inches, and
some 5 inch totals through 1Z is certainly within the realm of
possibility, with much of this likely falling within a two hour
period for any given location.  The ARW and ARW2 have a slightly
more dispersed QPF signal, and these two solutions don't appear as
likely since there are some greater differences between current
activity at 20Z versus their simulated radar reflectivity valid at
the same time.  Some instances of flash flooding will be possible
where convection persists the longest.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6P2wvhDnuCkrtb8sGvziplWb3TTQfmkG-jx01FoCzYKwGmbw5C6w3eCx9N6QAfyFZLFC=
dpbL6iHJmJd93ZhgurJxfWM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAX...MOB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33338770 33298715 33008678 32268583 31558457=20
            31148269 30738213 30208266 29398254 29198283=20
            29758349 29968371 30098401 30088425 29968452=20
            29748507 29838532 30118564 30298585 30518636=20
            31128656 31718699 31908732 32188781 32608818=20
            33098808=20

=3D =3D =3D
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