Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0839
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 22 2023 20:42:10

ACUS11 KWNS 222042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222041=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-222245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0839
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southwest into central MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222041Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and localized severe gusts will
continue through the rest of the afternoon. Watch issuance remains
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 2030 UTC, a weakly organized storm cluster is moving
across west-central MT, with some recent development noted into
southwest MT. The cluster approaching Great Falls has mostly only
produced subsevere hail and wind thus far, though some increase in
severe potential remains possible as it moves into an increasingly
unstable environment downstream, where steeper low-level lapse rates
may favor an uptick in severe wind potential. However, with
generally modest buoyancy and stronger deep-layer flow/shear
expected to remain northwest of the strongest convection, the severe
threat is still expected to remain isolated at best. Additional
cells/clusters may evolve out of developing convection in southwest
MT and move northeastward, with a similar risk of isolated hail and
localized strong/severe gusts. The overall severe risk still appears
too marginal and isolated for watch issuance.

...Dean/Grams.. 05/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5JOu7P2het2PB0aWikT7MbPU13vOLZjz_o7vPZ75m5vqbbE2f_QqS5K1EWnXy54DM7H4YuI8I=
02KQn47sN1F6JSlr3c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   46660929 45921010 45081136 44511247 44871342 44981347
            45391371 45601334 45981264 46401192 48371122 48540994
            48570916 47660869 47210890 46660929=20


=3D =3D =3D
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