Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 22 2023 08:31:39

ACUS48 KWNS 220831
SWOD48
SPC AC 220830

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance has begun to advertise a more defined Omega
block pattern over the CONUS by D5/Friday, with this blocking
pattern then persisting through the weekend. Guidance has also
slowed the progression of a southern-stream shortwave trough, which
is now expected to move through the southern High Plains on
D7/Sunday. Some higher severe thunderstorm potential may materialize
whenever this wave does eject across the southern High Plains, but
the variability within the guidance limits predictability.

Given the expected modest flow aloft and anticipated blocking
pattern, a repeated scenario of daily afternoon thunderstorm
development across the southern and central High Plains is likely.
Some severe may accompany these storms each day, but the
predictability of their location and coverage is low at this
forecast range.

...Mosier.. 05/22/2023

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