Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 22 2023 05:58:37 ACUS02 KWNS 220558 SWODY2 SPC AC 220557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas on Tuesday. ....Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast remain over the central CONUS on Tuesday, flanked on each side by shortwave troughs. Any stronger flow associated with these shortwaves is expected to remain north of the International border, with the exception of some stronger southwesterly flow aloft across the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Surface pattern will remain similar to Monday, with ridging over the Northeast, Great Lakes, and OH Valley and lee troughing throughout the High Plains. Another day of scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated across the central Rockies, as upper ridging persists across the central CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible farther west across NV, as weak ascent glances the region during the afternoon. Widespread thunderstorms are also possible across the FL Peninsula during the afternoon and evening. Shear will likely be slightly weaker than Monday, limiting the severe thunderstorm potential. Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are also possible across the southern High Plains. ....Southern High Plains into western OK and northwest TX... Preceding storms (and resulting outflow) could dictate the severe threat over the region on Tuesday. Current expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will likely be in place Tuesday afternoon across the eastern TX Panhandle, despite numerous thunderstorms on Monday evening. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement that thunderstorm initiation is expected relatively early (i.e. before 21Z) in the TX Panhandle/NM border vicinity, as low-level moisture returns across the region. This returning low-level moisture coupled with diurnal heating is expected to destabilize the air mass downstream over the TX Panhandle, while also supporting moderate buoyancy. As a result, thunderstorms that develop along the NM/TX border vicinity would then evolve southeastward into the more buoyant air mass downstream. Given the high cloud bases, an outflow-dominant storm mode is favored, with a quick transition towards a more linear storm mode anticipated. As such, the primary risk will likely be damaging gusts. However, there is a remote chance of more discrete development farther east across the Panhandle, where better low-level moisture and southeasterly surface winds could promote a supercellular mode. ....Great Basin... Early afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as modest ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough interacts with the unstable and modest buoyant air mass in place. Despite widespread thunderstorm coverage, the overall severe potential is expected to remain relatively low, owing primarily to the lack of stronger vertical shear. ...Mosier.. 05/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .