Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0834
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 22 2023 00:25:05

ACUS11 KWNS 220024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220024=20
IDZ000-ORZ000-220230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0834
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Sun May 21 2023

Areas affected...eastern OR...western ID

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

Valid 220024Z - 220230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts (60-70 mph) and marginally severe hail
(1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) will remain possible with the stronger
storms through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a
mid-level shortwave trough over the Cascades and this feature is
forecast to continue east-northeast this evening into the Columbia
Basin.  Scattered thunderstorms have developed over southeast OR
late this afternoon and an elongated arcing cold pool is evident
from northern Harney County, OR, to southern Canyon County, ID and
southeastward into central Owyhee County, ID.  Deep-layer weak mean
southwesterly flow (per 00 UTC Boise raob and KCBX VAD) will
continue to promote storm motions to the northeast on the leading
edge of the established gust front/cold pool.  Very steep 0-3 km
lapse rates (9.2 deg C/km) and an inverted-V structure sampled by
the 21 UTC and 00 UTC Boise raobs will promote efficient evaporative
cooling and the potential for severe gusts near the larger cores.=20
Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-13.5 deg C per the 00 UTC
Boise raob) will at least lend some localized potential for
marginally severe hail.  The risk for severe will likely move
northeast near the ID/OR border for the next couple of hours.

...Smith.. 05/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_y03uS_CJ84iN3y4l4mi4hLYFRXWg6GfEN4rbb7yABWOmoNn0ypml04bCtb_VQ--EkY-6tfUU=
auoEIu7h75-jmjFoAw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...PDT...

LAT...LON   44851772 45091676 44811566 44271539 43301598 43221631
            43371652 43591675 43671711 43581764 43351833 43381869
            43571874 44851772=20


=3D =3D =3D
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